When 80% of War Casualties Are Caused by Drones and AI:
What This Means for Business
80% of casualties in the Ukraine war are attributed to drones and AI.
Not tanks. Not artillery. Technology that was considered an “interesting experiment” just three years ago.
The war shows us daily, in real-time, what happens when disruption meets life and death. And while we’re still discussing AI strategies in our meeting rooms, technological breakthroughs are being achieved every day in the Donbass – not in labs, but under fire.
The Numbers Tell a Clear Story
The claim sounds provocative, but it’s supported by multiple independent sources:
- Gundbert Scherf from defense company Helsing states that 80 to 90 percent of losses on both sides are attributable to drones
- The German Reserve Association reports that in the fourth year of war, drones are responsible for approximately 80 percent of all human and material losses
- The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) concludes in a study that Ukrainian tactical drones are responsible for about two-thirds of Russian losses
The specific numbers range between 70-90%, but the trend is clear: We’re witnessing a fundamental transformation of warfare – and thus a preview of the disruption coming to business.
Technology Meets Reality
The technical development is breathtaking:
→ Russian AI drones: 80% hit rate at 20km distance
→ Ukrainian drone production: From 0 to 200,000 units in two years
→ Tactics: What worked yesterday is obsolete today
Innovation Under Extreme Conditions: What Matthias Lehna Reports from Ukraine
In a fascinating interview with Christoph Magnussen on the “AI to the DNA” podcast (note: interview is in German), Matthias Lehna from Quantum Systems provides an unfiltered insight into the reality of drone warfare. Lehna, a former Bundeswehr officer with 13 years of experience, regularly commutes between Berlin and Kyiv today and is responsible for Business Development, Government Relations, and Ukraine business at Quantum Systems.
The Illusion of the Perfect Lab Prototype
His core message: Ukraine is the actual innovation laboratory for unmanned systems. Not Silicon Valley. Not the research labs of Western universities. But the Donbass.
Why? Because here, technology isn’t tested in controlled environments, but under conditions that throw all theoretical assumptions out the window:
- GPS no longer works reliably – electronic warfare has made GNSS “no longer a reliable factor”
- Companies rebuild antenna setups and redundancy systems over the holidays so their drones can still fly in a GNSS-denied environment
- AI must work “on edge” – there’s no cloud, no stable connection, only what the drone itself can do
- Short iteration cycles beat perfect development – when developers in Kyiv run to the shelter with their laptops during an air raid and their code determines whether a system will be operational tomorrow
“Better Material” Beats “More AI”
One of the most surprising insights: In the field, “more AI” is often not the answer, but simply “better material.” The fundamentals must be right – components that work under stress, systems that truly scale, training concepts that work for everyone, not just tech enthusiasts.
Lehna emphasizes: “The future is unmanned” is primarily a question of scaling, availability, and human-in-the-loop. Not autonomous killer robots, but millions of low-cost multicopters and highly specialized reconnaissance drones that empower people to make better decisions.
Europe’s Position Between Washington and Donbass
A critical point: Europe has a “sweet spot” between Washington and Donbass that neither the US nor Ukraine can leverage in the same way. But we’re standing in our own way – through a combination of:
- Risk aversion
- Regulatory hurdles
- Outsourced production
At the same time, young engineers‘ motivation is changing: Today they join dual-use companies with a completely different sense of purpose because they understand that their work has immediate consequences. Christoph Magnussen in his interview with one of the German corporate leaders in the drone business, brought this to my attention once again:
Full interview (in German): “AI to the DNA” with Matthias Lehna
What This Means for Business
And what about us in our companies?
Yes, many are already experimenting with ChatGPT. But mostly without strategy, without fundamental understanding, without quality awareness. We’re like armies going to war with outdated tactics.
We’re Already Seeing the Consequences:
Missing Data Quality Is Ignored:
- AI outputs are based on poor data – nobody questions it
- Decisions are made based on hallucinations
- There’s no awareness that “garbage in, garbage out” has exponential effects with AI
Every Failure Undermines Trust:
- Initial pilot projects fail not because of the technology, but due to lack of business analysis competence
- Teams have no idea how to meaningfully integrate AI into their processes
- Fear of the new is reinforced by bad experiences
Structured Approach Is Missing:
- Experimentation without clear goals
- Nobody defines what “success” actually means
- Departments aren’t empowered to ask the right questions
The Real Problem: It’s Not About the Tool
Ukraine shows us: Technology is only as good as the foundation it stands on. In war, that’s robust systems, fast learning cycles, and teams that function under pressure.
In business, it’s:
→ Business analysis competence in departments – people who understand which problems really need to be solved
→ Awareness of data quality – the realization that AI is only as good as the data it works with
→ Structured approach – clear methods instead of blind experimentation
→ Courage to iterate – small steps, fast learning, continuous improvement
Just as Quantum Systems rebuilds antenna setups over the holidays, companies must be willing to adapt their processes, their structures, their mindsets – and do it quickly.
The Uncomfortable Truth
The disruption is already here. The question is no longer “if,” but “who survives it.”
In war, Russian drones show 80% hit rates at 20 kilometers. Ukraine builds production capacity for 200,000 drones in two years. Tactics that worked yesterday are worthless today.
In business?
The large consulting firms have already massively built up their AI departments. They’re investing millions in expertise, tools, and capabilities. They’re preparing.
And the small and medium-sized enterprises? The departments? They’re still discussing whether to use ChatGPT.
What Needs to Be Done Now
In war, there’s no second chance for “doing it right later.” Not in business anymore either.
Those who experiment without foundation today will pay the price tomorrow.
The good news: It’s not too late yet. But time is running out. Now is the moment to:
- Create the basics: Build business analysis competence before the first AI projects start
- Take data quality seriously: Understand that AI is only as good as what you feed it
- Proceed systematically: Establish methods that work – not just collect tools
- Remove the fear: Through knowledge, through understanding, through controlled first steps
Matthias Lehna describes in the interview how an organization changes when developers in Kyiv run to the shelter during an air raid with their laptops – and their colleagues in Germany know that their code determines whether a system will be operational tomorrow.
We don’t need to learn this kind of urgency, this kind of purpose through war. But we should learn from the lessons it gives us.
The Question Remains
Are you preparing your company – or are you watching others define your future?
The Ukraine war is a brutal, tragic experiment. But it shows us with merciless clarity where things are headed. Technology that proves itself under extreme conditions will also prevail in business. Faster than we think.
The only question is: Are we ready?
Coming soon: Another important question – How can smaller consulting firms compete against the AI giants of the big houses? More on this in the coming days.
Sources:
- ZDF: Defense entrepreneur calls for more investment in drones (November 2025)
- Reservistenverband: The New War – Drones and Their Influence on Warfare (November 2025)
- Defence Network: Drones, Data and AI – How Ukraine Is Redefining War (April 2025)
- AI to the DNA Podcast: Interview with Matthias Lehna, Quantum Systems (German)
